-16%
Public certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Northland Pioneer College are 16% below the public certificate-predominant peer median ($34.2k vs $40.7k).
Arizona · Public · Predominantly certificates
Northland Pioneer College
Holbrook, Arizona. 1,024 undergraduate students. 54 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Northland Pioneer College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+40%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Northland Pioneer College rose 40% between 2020 and 2023 (30.0% → 41.9%).
-19%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Northland Pioneer College fell 19% between 2009 and 2010 (10.3% → 8.3%).
-10%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Northland Pioneer College fell 10% between 2021 and 2024 (1.1k → 1.0k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Arizona
Each tile compares this institution to the Arizona median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$34,199+15% · 6→10y
Arizona median $39,817$29,631
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry8.3%-40% · '97→'24
Arizona median 43.0%—
At program completion1,024-12% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS41.9%-0% · '04→'23
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$2,428+183% · '00→'24
out-of-state $9,851SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
-40%
Northland Pioneer College · completion · 150% fell
36.6% → 21.9%
+144%
Northland Pioneer College · in-state tuition rose
$790 → $2,232
+137%
Northland Pioneer College · out-of-state tuition rose
$4,350 → $10,320
+38%
Northland Pioneer College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$24,800 → $34,199
+32%
Northland Pioneer College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$23,200 → $30,543
+35%
Northland Pioneer College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$22,000 → $29,631
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Arizona
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Northland Pioneer College graduates earn $X” — not “Northland Pioneer College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Northland Pioneer College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.