+59%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix rose 59% between 2017 and 2020 ($10.6k → $16.8k).
Arizona · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix
Phoenix, Arizona. 102 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (3.6% → 0.0%).
-36%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix fell 36% between 2021 and 2024 (84.6% → 53.8%).
+46%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix rose 46% between 2021 and 2024 (94 → 137).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Arizona
Each tile compares this institution to the Arizona median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$29,340+23% · 6→10y
Arizona median $39,817$23,932
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry62.5%
Arizona median 43.0%$11,200+140% · '10→'20
At program completion102+5% · '10→'24
latest IPEDS71.4%-35% · '10→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.1%Median federal debt $11,200 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $29,340 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-35%
Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix · retention fell
82.5% → 53.8%
+140%
Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix · median debt rose
$7,000 → $16,779
+406%
Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix · pell share rose
10.6% → 53.6%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Arizona
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-Phoenix caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.