+38%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at University of California-Merced rose 38% between 2006 and 2009 ($6.7k → $9.2k).
California · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
UC Merced
Merced, California. 8,372 undergraduate students. 65 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at UC Merced
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+164%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at University of California-Merced rose 164% between 2006 and 2009 (1.2k → 3.2k).
+15%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at University of California-Merced rose 15% between 2021 and 2024 ($43.4k → $49.8k).
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of California-Merced fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.8% → 0.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. California
Each tile compares this institution to the California median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$64,368+33% · 6→10y
California median $42,588$48,475
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry69.2%+18% · '11→'24
California median 61.3%$12,750-36% · '05→'09
At program completion8,372+279% · '05→'09
latest IPEDS83.1%
first-time, full-time39.2%+5% · '06→'24
latest cohort$14,167+38% · '05→'09
out-of-state $44,944SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.6%Median federal debt $12,750 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $64,368 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+52%
UC Merced · completion · 100% rose
33.3% → 50.5%
+1660%
UC Merced · retention rose
0.0% → 83.0%
+279%
UC Merced · undergrad enrollment rose
841 → 3,190
+38%
UC Merced · in-state tuition rose
$6,653 → $9,161
+104%
UC Merced · out-of-state tuition rose
$24,473 → $49,823
-36%
UC Merced · median debt fell
$8,635 → $5,500
-100%
UC Merced · cohort default rate fell
2.0% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Computer Engineering.$102,036Biomedical/Medical Engineering.$89,244Mechanical Engineering.$85,156Environmental/Environmental Health Engineering.$83,194Applied Mathematics.$79,461Economics.$71,331Biology, General.$67,342Chemistry.$64,086Business Administration, Management and Operations.$61,387Political Science and Government.$59,111Cognitive Science.$57,358Psychology, General.$52,632Anthropology.$50,370Sociology.$49,395
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
14 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in California
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“UC Merced graduates earn $X” — not “UC Merced makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending UC Merced caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.