For-profit certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven are 26% below the for-profit certificate-predominant peer median ($30.9k vs $41.6k).
North Haven, Connecticut. 191 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
10-year earnings at Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven are 26% below the for-profit certificate-predominant peer median ($30.9k vs $41.6k).
150%-time completion at Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven rose 246% between 2006 and 2009 (27.4% → 94.7%).
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven rose 64% between 2021 and 2024 (59.1% → 96.7%).
Median federal debt at exit at Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven fell 36% between 2017 and 2020 ($9.8k → $6.3k).
Each tile compares this institution to the Connecticut median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Median federal debt $6,333 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $30,900 (10y after entry).
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
66.7% → 94.7%
127 → 178
$4,250 → $6,333
10.5% → 0.0%
24.2% → 44.0%
$22,900 → $30,900
$22,000 → $26,600
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-North Haven caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.