-34%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Yale University fell 34% between 2021 and 2024 (87.7% → 57.5%).
Connecticut · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Yale
Yale University is a private Ivy League research university in New Haven, Connecticut. Founded in 1701, it is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States, with renowned law, drama, and medical schools.
6,811 undergraduate students. 190 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
Earnings, completion, debt, and enrollment anomalies at Yale
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Yale University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.2% → 0.0%).
+12%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Yale University rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.0k → $67.2k).
+12%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Yale University rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.0k → $67.2k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
Yale earnings, debt, and completion vs. the Connecticut median
Each tile compares this institution to the Connecticut median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$100,533+23% · 6→10y
Connecticut median $57,515$81,765
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry96.3%+0% · '97→'24
Connecticut median 70.2%$11,648-20% · '97→'20
At program completion6,811+26% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS99.0%-0% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time4.5%-76% · '01→'24
latest cohort$64,700+158% · '01→'24
out-of-state $64,700SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How Yale earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings at Yale
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.5%Median federal debt $11,648 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $100,533 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Yale enrollment, completion, and debt over time
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-34%
Yale · completion · 100% fell
87.4% → 57.5%
+26%
Yale · undergrad enrollment rose
5,366 → 6,758
+158%
Yale · in-state tuition rose
$26,100 → $67,250
+158%
Yale · out-of-state tuition rose
$26,100 → $67,250
-20%
Yale · median debt fell
$16,275 → $12,975
-70%
Yale · cohort default rate fell
1.4% → 0.0%
+111%
Yale · pell share rose
9.7% → 20.4%
+53%
Yale · earnings_median_10yr rose
$65,600 → $100,533
+73%
Yale · earnings_median_8yr rose
$54,700 → $94,821
+83%
Yale · earnings_median_6yr rose
$44,800 → $81,765
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Yale programs ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Computer and Information Sciences, General$271,466Law$221,083Business Administration, Management and Operations$213,202Economics$131,171Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other$130,467Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions$129,385Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing$128,563Health and Medical Administrative Services$127,969Political Science and Government$123,834Medicine$105,217Natural Resources Conservation and Research$95,750Public Health$94,970Natural Resources Management and Policy$90,713Ecology, Evolution, Systematics, and Population Biology$88,262Architecture$87,905Area Studies$81,531Theological and Ministerial Studies$70,739English Language and Literature, General$62,925Religious/Sacred Music$51,142Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft$44,472Fine and Studio Arts$31,040
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
21 Yale programs with earnings, grouped by field
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
THEOLOGY & RELIGIOUS VOCATIONS · CIP 39
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03
ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04
AREA, ETHNIC & CULTURAL STUDIES · CIP 05
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Yale
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$2,734,561
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 7
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,900
- HS-only baseline · CT
- $42,300
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Institutions similar to Yale in Connecticut
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Yale graduates earn $X” — not “Yale makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Yale caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.