-37pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 37 pp at Fortis College-Orange Park vs the 2003–2007 baseline (35.2% vs 72.2%).
Florida · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Fortis College-Orange Park
Orange Park, Florida. 327 undergraduate students. 11 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Fortis College-Orange Park
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-24%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 24% at Fortis College-Orange Park vs the 2018–2022 baseline (327 vs 429).
-16%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Fortis College-Orange Park are 16% below 6-year earnings ($34.0k → $28.5k).
-15%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Fortis College-Orange Park fell 15% between 2006 and 2009 (59.7% → 50.7%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Florida
Each tile compares this institution to the Florida median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$28,506-16% · 6→10y
Florida median $36,288$33,987
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry35.2%-40% · '02→'09
Florida median 65.6%$9,500+186% · '01→'20
At program completion327+348% · '01→'24
latest IPEDS51.5%-3% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$14,386+20% · '11→'24
out-of-state $14,386SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.4%Median federal debt $9,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $28,506 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-40%
Fortis College-Orange Park · completion · 150% fell
83.9% → 50.7%
+155%
Fortis College-Orange Park · undergrad enrollment rose
89 → 399
+186%
Fortis College-Orange Park · median debt rose
$3,925 → $11,238
-100%
Fortis College-Orange Park · cohort default rate fell
20.6% → 0.0%
+21%
Fortis College-Orange Park · earnings_median_10yr rose
$23,500 → $28,506
+22%
Fortis College-Orange Park · earnings_median_8yr rose
$22,200 → $27,082
+61%
Fortis College-Orange Park · earnings_median_6yr rose
$21,100 → $33,987
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$48,130Health and Medical Administrative Services.$35,769Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$33,856Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$31,663Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$31,288
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
5 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$31,288Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$31,663Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$33,856Health and Medical Administrative Services.$35,769Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$48,130
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Fortis College-Orange Park
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$67,914
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $24,047
- HS-only baseline · FL
- $35,400
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Florida
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Fortis College-Orange Park graduates earn $X” — not “Fortis College-Orange Park makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Fortis College-Orange Park caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.