-30%
Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Paine College are 30% below the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($33.3k vs $47.3k).
Georgia · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Paine College
Augusta, Georgia. 338 undergraduate students. 22 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paine College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Paine College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (13.0% → 0.0%).
-15%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paine College fell 15% between 2021 and 2024 (63.2% → 53.6%).
-8pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 8 pp at Paine College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (21.7% vs 29.8%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Georgia
Each tile compares this institution to the Georgia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$33,338+32% · 6→10y
Georgia median $38,208$25,240
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry21.7%+42% · '97→'09
Georgia median 41.6%$11,000+364% · '97→'19
At program completion338-52% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS53.6%-19% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time83.4%+710% · '01→'24
latest cohort$14,596+89% · '01→'24
out-of-state $14,596SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.4%Median federal debt $11,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $33,338 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+42%
Paine College · completion · 150% rose
19.9% → 28.2%
-19%
Paine College · retention fell
66.0% → 53.6%
-52%
Paine College · undergrad enrollment fell
800 → 388
+89%
Paine College · in-state tuition rose
$7,736 → $14,596
+89%
Paine College · out-of-state tuition rose
$7,736 → $14,596
+364%
Paine College · median debt rose
$6,625 → $30,747
-100%
Paine College · cohort default rate fell
18.3% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paine College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$57,711
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 26
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,287
- HS-only baseline · GA
- $35,800
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 45
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Georgia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paine College graduates earn $X” — not “Paine College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paine College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.