-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Aurora University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.6% → 0.0%).
Illinois · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Aurora University
Aurora, Illinois. 4,021 undergraduate students. 72 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Aurora University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Illinois
Each tile compares this institution to the Illinois median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$58,709+15% · 6→10y
Illinois median $40,810$51,237
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry58.3%+26% · '97→'24
Illinois median 53.3%$15,500+122% · '97→'20
At program completion4,021+233% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS77.8%+12% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time85.1%+30% · '01→'24
latest cohort$28,220+126% · '00→'24
out-of-state $28,220SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $15,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $58,709 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+26%
Aurora University · completion · 150% rose
47.9% → 60.3%
+66%
Aurora University · completion · 100% rose
29.9% → 49.5%
+12%
Aurora University · retention rose
69.0% → 77.1%
+233%
Aurora University · undergrad enrollment rose
1,193 → 3,974
+126%
Aurora University · in-state tuition rose
$12,918 → $29,170
+126%
Aurora University · out-of-state tuition rose
$12,918 → $29,170
+122%
Aurora University · median debt rose
$9,167 → $20,318
-100%
Aurora University · cohort default rate fell
7.4% → 0.0%
+71%
Aurora University · pell share rose
26.3% → 45.0%
+33%
Aurora University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$44,300 → $58,709
+32%
Aurora University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$41,200 → $54,510
+33%
Aurora University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$38,600 → $51,237
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Business Administration, Management and Operations.$88,780Educational Administration and Supervision.$80,383Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$80,026Accounting and Related Services.$79,539Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology.$76,132Business/Commerce, General.$75,737Accounting and Related Services.$72,816Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$68,751Health/Medical Preparatory Programs.$67,458Bilingual, Multilingual, and Multicultural Education.$65,882Marketing.$64,060Educational/Instructional Media Design.$63,501Business Administration, Management and Operations.$62,691Biology, General.$60,920Social Work.$59,292Criminal Justice and Corrections.$59,192Social Work.$51,486Psychology, General.$50,859Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$48,179Communication and Media Studies.$46,836
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
20 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$48,179Educational Administration and Supervision.$80,383Educational/Instructional Media Design.$63,501Bilingual, Multilingual, and Multicultural Education.$65,882Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$68,751
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Aurora University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$244,536
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 17
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $16,984
- HS-only baseline · IL
- $38,300
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 44
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Illinois
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Aurora University graduates earn $X” — not “Aurora University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Aurora University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.