-27pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 27 pp at Cosmetology & Spa Academy vs the 2003–2007 baseline (60.0% vs 87.0%).
Illinois · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Cosmetology & Spa Academy
Crystal Lake, Illinois. 377 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Cosmetology & Spa Academy
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Cosmetology & Spa Academy fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.5% → 0.0%).
-15%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Cosmetology & Spa Academy fell 15% between 2006 and 2009 (95.2% → 80.7%).
-17%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Cosmetology & Spa Academy fell 17% between 2017 and 2020 ($9.5k → $7.9k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Illinois
Each tile compares this institution to the Illinois median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$29,779+18% · 6→10y
Illinois median $40,810$25,231
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry60.0%-17% · '97→'09
Illinois median 53.3%$7,917+202% · '00→'20
At program completion377+935% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS91.8%-11% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $7,917 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $29,779 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-11%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · retention fell
96.0% → 85.1%
+201%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · undergrad enrollment rose
43 → 445
+202%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · median debt rose
$2,625 → $7,917
-100%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · cohort default rate fell
8.8% → 0.0%
+85%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · pell share rose
33.1% → 61.1%
+40%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · earnings_median_10yr rose
$21,200 → $29,779
+72%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · earnings_median_8yr rose
$17,100 → $29,345
+55%
Cosmetology & Spa Academy · earnings_median_6yr rose
$16,300 → $25,231
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Cosmetology & Spa Academy
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$288,993
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $15,398
- HS-only baseline · IL
- $38,300
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Illinois
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Cosmetology & Spa Academy graduates earn $X” — not “Cosmetology & Spa Academy makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Cosmetology & Spa Academy caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.