-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at HVAC Technical Institute fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (5.8% → 0.0%).
Illinois · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
HVAC Technical Institute
Chicago, Illinois. 216 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at HVAC Technical Institute
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+63%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at HVAC Technical Institute rose 63% between 2021 and 2024 (175 → 285).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Illinois
Each tile compares this institution to the Illinois median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
—
Illinois median $40,810—
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry72.4%
Illinois median 53.3%$6,851±0% · '15→'20
At program completion216+252% · '15→'24
latest IPEDS—
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+102%
HVAC Technical Institute · undergrad enrollment rose
81 → 285
-100%
HVAC Technical Institute · cohort default rate fell
22.2% → 0.0%
+488%
HVAC Technical Institute · pell share rose
9.2% → 54.1%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at HVAC Technical Institute
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$144,735
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $23,856
- HS-only baseline · IL
- $38,300
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 47
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Illinois
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“HVAC Technical Institute graduates earn $X” — not “HVAC Technical Institute makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending HVAC Technical Institute caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.