ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS

What the data flags at Harvard

Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE-36%

100%-time completion

100%-time completion at Harvard University fell 36% between 2021 and 2024 (86.3% → 55.7%).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+11%

In-state tuition

In-state tuition at Harvard University rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 ($55.6k → $61.7k).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+11%

Out-of-state tuition

Out-of-state tuition at Harvard University rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 ($55.6k → $61.7k).

EARNINGS TREND · TRENDING WORSE+2%

Earnings trend · post-entry horizons

Earnings 10 years post-entry at Harvard University are 2% above 6-year earnings ($99.6k → $101.8k).

SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT

The numbers, vs. Massachusetts

Each tile compares this institution to the Massachusetts median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y

$101,817+2% · 6→10y

Massachusetts median $56,022

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y

$99,572

Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry

COMPLETION · 150%

97.3%+1% · '97→'24

Massachusetts median 66.5%

MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT

$12,500+8% · '97→'20

At program completion

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT

7,755+114% · '96→'24

latest IPEDS

RETENTION

98.6%+1% · '04→'09

first-time, full-time

ADMISSION RATE

3.5%-66% · '01→'24

latest cohort

IN-STATE TUITION

$59,076+145% · '00→'24

out-of-state $59,076

SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS

How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry

Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).

ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05

Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →

SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS

What loans cost relative to earnings

Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.

Institution-wide

1.6%

0%8% · GE20%+

Median federal debt $12,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $101,817 (10y after entry).

SECTION 04 · LONG ARC

Ten-plus year arc

Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.

UNDERGRAD · 1996–20247,601

Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF

COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202497.6%

150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$14,000

Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD

COMPLETION · 100% · 1997→2024-34%

Harvard · completion · 100% fell

84.1% → 55.7%

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT · 1996→2024+114%

Harvard · undergrad enrollment rose

3,548 → 7,601

IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+145%

Harvard · in-state tuition rose

$25,128 → $61,676

OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+145%

Harvard · out-of-state tuition rose

$25,128 → $61,676

COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-50%

Harvard · cohort default rate fell

1.0% → 0.0%

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+33%

Harvard · earnings_median_8yr rose

$76,200 → $101,095

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+64%

Harvard · earnings_median_6yr rose

$60,900 → $99,572

SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS

Ranked by 5-year earnings

Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.

Business Administration, Management and Operations.CIP 5202 · First Professional Degree$283,798—Advanced/Graduate Dentistry and Oral Sciences.CIP 5105 · Graduate/Professional Certificate$281,04314 grads Law.CIP 2201 · First Professional Degree$250,647594 grads Statistics.CIP 2705 · Bachelor's Degree$229,81149 grads Computer Science.CIP 1107 · Bachelor's Degree$219,550138 grads Ecology, Evolution, Systematics, and Population Biology.CIP 2613 · Master's Degree$208,69599 grads Public Health.CIP 5122 · Master's Degree$204,275354 grads Applied Mathematics.CIP 2703 · Bachelor's Degree$178,31884 grads Dentistry.CIP 5104 · First Professional Degree$172,73234 grads Economics.CIP 4506 · Bachelor's Degree$161,251154 grads Ecology, Evolution, Systematics, and Population Biology.CIP 2613 · Doctoral Degree$147,36241 grads Finance and Financial Management Services.CIP 5208 · Master's Degree$142,601157 grads Public Administration.CIP 4404 · Master's Degree$140,456193 grads Medicine.CIP 5112 · First Professional Degree$139,818160 grads Public Policy Analysis.CIP 4405 · Master's Degree$134,992172 grads Education, General.CIP 1301 · Doctoral Degree$132,11430 grads Public Policy Analysis.CIP 4405 · Doctoral Degree$129,45821 grads Public Health.CIP 5122 · Doctoral Degree$120,14318 grads Business Administration, Management and Operations.CIP 5202 · Master's Degree$119,724897 grads Political Science and Government.CIP 4510 · Bachelor's Degree$117,48478 grads Biology, General.CIP 2601 · Doctoral Degree$117,15549 grads Educational Administration and Supervision.CIP 1304 · Master's Degree$105,9180 grads Research and Experimental Psychology.CIP 4227 · Bachelor's Degree$102,30560 grads Educational/Instructional Media Design.CIP 1305 · Master's Degree$95,95771 grads

Showing top 24 of 42 ranked programs.305 TOTAL PROGRAMS

SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY

42 programs with earnings, grouped

Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.

FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION

Estimate the financial outcome at Harvard

Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.

Program

Family income

Discount rate · 5.0%

Horizon · 40 years

Apply Dale-Krueger selection shrinkage

Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.

NET PRESENT VALUE

$1,275,708

Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%

BREAKEVEN

Year 6

First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero

Cost per year: $2,167
HS-only baseline · MA: $42,600
Years to complete: 6
CIP family: 52

Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.

SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS

Same sector and degree mix in Massachusetts

Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.

MEDFORD$83.2k

Harvard

100%-time completion

In-state tuition

Out-of-state tuition

Earnings trend · post-entry horizons

Institution-wide

Harvard · completion · 100% fell

Harvard · undergrad enrollment rose

Harvard · in-state tuition rose

Harvard · out-of-state tuition rose

Harvard · cohort default rate fell

Harvard · earnings_median_8yr rose

Harvard · earnings_median_6yr rose

COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11

EDUCATION · CIP 13

ENGINEERING · CIP 14

LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22

ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23

LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24

BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26

MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27

THEOLOGY & RELIGIOUS VOCATIONS · CIP 39

PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44

SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45

HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52

HISTORY · CIP 54

ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04

Tufts

MIT

Brandeis

BU

Berklee

“Harvard graduates earn $X” — not “Harvard makes you earn $X”