Public associate's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Central Lakes College-Brainerd are 8% below the public associate's-predominant peer median ($42.2k vs $45.7k).
Brainerd, Minnesota. 1,486 undergraduate students. 76 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
10-year earnings at Central Lakes College-Brainerd are 8% below the public associate's-predominant peer median ($42.2k vs $45.7k).
3-year cohort default rate at Central Lakes College-Brainerd fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.7% → 0.0%).
First-year retention at Central Lakes College-Brainerd rose 17% between 2021 and 2024 (58.5% → 68.6%).
Each tile compares this institution to the Minnesota median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Median federal debt $8,439 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $42,162 (10y after entry).
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
56.0% → 68.6%
641 → 1,614
$2,474 → $6,249
$4,625 → $6,249
$2,650 → $11,000
18.9% → 0.0%
36.5% → 14.4%
$32,400 → $42,162
$31,700 → $40,383
$29,700 → $39,389
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Central Lakes College-Brainerd caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.