+47%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Neosho Beauty College rose 47% between 2017 and 2020 ($6.5k → $9.5k).
Missouri · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Neosho Beauty College
Neosho, Missouri. 62 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Neosho Beauty College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-37%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Neosho Beauty College are 37% below 6-year earnings ($28.9k → $18.3k).
-26pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 26 pp at Neosho Beauty College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (48.5% vs 74.5%).
-13%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Neosho Beauty College fell 13% between 2021 and 2024 (76.9% → 66.7%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Missouri
Each tile compares this institution to the Missouri median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$18,280-37% · 6→10y
Missouri median $40,979$28,896
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry48.5%-12% · '97→'09
Missouri median 59.3%$7,917+262% · '97→'20
At program completion62-10% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS75.0%-22% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.8%Median federal debt $7,917 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $18,280 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-22%
Neosho Beauty College · retention fell
86.0% → 66.7%
+262%
Neosho Beauty College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $9,500
-100%
Neosho Beauty College · cohort default rate fell
22.2% → 0.0%
+29%
Neosho Beauty College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$13,900 → $18,280
+95%
Neosho Beauty College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$14,600 → $28,896
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Neosho Beauty College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at Neosho Beauty College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Missouri
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Neosho Beauty College graduates earn $X” — not “Neosho Beauty College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Neosho Beauty College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.