+118%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at MCVSD rose 118% between 2015 and 2018 ($3.5k → $7.6k).
New Jersey · Public · Predominantly certificates
MCVSD
Freehold, New Jersey. 63 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at MCVSD
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at MCVSD fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (7.3% → 0.0%).
-8pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 8 pp at MCVSD vs the 2003–2007 baseline (64.3% vs 72.7%).
+65%
First-year retention
First-year retention at MCVSD rose 65% between 2021 and 2024 (22.2% → 36.7%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New Jersey
Each tile compares this institution to the New Jersey median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$45,062+51% · 6→10y
New Jersey median $46,742$29,838
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry64.3%+48% · '97→'09
New Jersey median 62.0%$5,500+191% · '97→'18
At program completion63-96% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS22.2%-56% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.6%Median federal debt $5,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $45,062 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+48%
MCVSD · completion · 150% rose
55.2% → 81.6%
-56%
MCVSD · retention fell
84.0% → 36.7%
-96%
MCVSD · undergrad enrollment fell
1,491 → 67
+191%
MCVSD · median debt rose
$2,625 → $7,629
-100%
MCVSD · cohort default rate fell
17.0% → 0.0%
+403%
MCVSD · pell share rose
14.8% → 74.6%
+26%
MCVSD · earnings_median_10yr rose
$35,800 → $45,062
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at MCVSD
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$500,058
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $22,415
- HS-only baseline · NJ
- $41,700
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New Jersey
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“MCVSD graduates earn $X” — not “MCVSD makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending MCVSD caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.