-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Elmira College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.3% → 0.0%).
New York · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Elmira College
Elmira, New York. 583 undergraduate students. 52 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Elmira College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+12%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Elmira College rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 (632 → 708).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New York
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$57,550+17% · 6→10y
New York median $48,917$49,057
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry64.0%+25% · '97→'24
New York median 64.2%$20,230+308% · '97→'20
At program completion583-55% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS73.8%-15% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time90.8%-3% · '01→'24
latest cohort$37,932+62% · '02→'24
out-of-state $37,932SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.7%Median federal debt $20,230 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $57,550 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+25%
Elmira College · completion · 150% rose
51.8% → 64.7%
+34%
Elmira College · completion · 100% rose
45.1% → 60.3%
-15%
Elmira College · retention fell
82.0% → 69.8%
-55%
Elmira College · undergrad enrollment fell
1,566 → 708
+62%
Elmira College · in-state tuition rose
$23,990 → $38,976
+62%
Elmira College · out-of-state tuition rose
$23,990 → $38,976
+308%
Elmira College · median debt rose
$6,625 → $27,000
-100%
Elmira College · cohort default rate fell
5.3% → 0.0%
+47%
Elmira College · pell share rose
25.7% → 37.9%
+29%
Elmira College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$44,600 → $57,550
+28%
Elmira College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$41,500 → $53,139
+35%
Elmira College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$36,300 → $49,057
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Accounting and Related Services.$80,241Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$77,681Biology, General.$65,177Business Administration, Management and Operations.$63,972Criminal Justice and Corrections.$57,566Psychology, General.$53,710Human Services, General.$49,233Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$48,362
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
8 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Elmira College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$626,695
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 7
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $18,523
- HS-only baseline · NY
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New York
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Elmira College graduates earn $X” — not “Elmira College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Elmira College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.