North Carolina · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Duke
Durham, North Carolina. 6,417 undergraduate students. 229 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
UNITID 198419 · OPEID 002920 · IPEDS HDVINTAGE · COLLEGE SCORECARD · 2025-05 · HISTORY 1996–2024
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
Earnings, completion, debt, and enrollment anomalies at Duke
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+14%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Duke University rose 14% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.2k → $68.8k).
PEER OUTLIER · TRENDING BETTER+114%
Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Duke University are 114% above the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($97.8k vs $45.7k).
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+14%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Duke University rose 14% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.2k → $68.8k).
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+13%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Duke University rose 13% between 2017 and 2020 ($11.5k → $13.0k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
Duke earnings, debt, and completion vs. the North Carolina median
Each tile compares this institution to the North Carolina median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y
$97,800+14% · 6→10y
North Carolina median $36,030
MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y
$85,792
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry
COMPLETION · 150%
95.8%+5% · '97→'24
North Carolina median 46.1%
MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT
$12,000-5% · '97→'20
At program completion
UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT
6,417+4% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS
RETENTION
96.2%+1% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time
ADMISSION RATE
6.8%-78% · '02→'24
latest cohort
IN-STATE TUITION
$65,805+168% · '00→'24
out-of-state $65,805
SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How Duke earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings at Duke
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.6%
0%8% · GE20%+
Median federal debt $12,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $97,800 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Duke enrollment, completion, and debt over time
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
UNDERGRAD · 1996–20246,442
Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF
COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202496.8%
150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR
MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$13,000
Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD
IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+168%
Duke · in-state tuition rose
$25,630 → $68,758
OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+168%
Duke · out-of-state tuition rose
$25,630 → $68,758
COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-50%
Duke · cohort default rate fell
1.0% → 0.0%
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+34%
Duke · earnings_median_10yr rose
$73,000 → $97,800
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+51%
Duke · earnings_median_8yr rose
$63,500 → $95,882
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+63%
Duke · earnings_median_6yr rose
$52,500 → $85,792
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Duke programs ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$2,986,111
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 6
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
Cost per year
$6,901
HS-only baseline · NC
$35,600
Years to complete
6
CIP family
52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Institutions similar to Duke in North Carolina
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
“Duke graduates earn $X” — not “Duke makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Duke caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.