North Carolina · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
UNC
Chapel Hill, North Carolina. 20,556 undergraduate students. 231 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
UNITID 199120 · OPEID 002974 · IPEDS HDVINTAGE · COLLEGE SCORECARD · 2025-05 · HISTORY 1996–2024
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at UNC
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+12%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($36.9k → $41.2k).
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.9% → 0.0%).
PEER OUTLIER · TRENDING BETTER+59%
Public bachelor's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill are 59% above the public bachelor's-predominant peer median ($72.2k vs $45.3k).
LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-13%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill fell 13% between 2017 and 2020 ($16.1k → $14.0k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. North Carolina
Each tile compares this institution to the North Carolina median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y
$72,200+27% · 6→10y
North Carolina median $36,030
MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y
$57,057
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry
COMPLETION · 150%
92.1%+9% · '97→'24
North Carolina median 46.1%
MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT
$12,989+111% · '97→'20
At program completion
UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT
20,556+40% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS
RETENTION
97.2%+2% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time
ADMISSION RATE
18.7%-58% · '01→'24
latest cohort
IN-STATE TUITION
$8,989+225% · '00→'24
out-of-state $39,330
SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.4%
0%8% · GE20%+
Median federal debt $12,989 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $72,200 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
UNDERGRAD · 1996–202420,752
Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF
COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202491.2%
150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR
MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$14,000
Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD
COMPLETION · 100% · 1997→2024+33%
UNC · completion · 100% rose
62.7% → 83.6%
UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT · 1996→2024+40%
UNC · undergrad enrollment rose
14,858 → 20,752
IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+225%
UNC · in-state tuition rose
$2,768 → $8,994
OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+245%
UNC · out-of-state tuition rose
$11,934 → $41,203
MEDIAN DEBT · 1997→2020+111%
UNC · median debt rose
$6,625 → $14,000
COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-40%
UNC · cohort default rate fell
0.8% → 0.0%
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+44%
UNC · earnings_median_10yr rose
$50,200 → $72,200
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+44%
UNC · earnings_median_8yr rose
$45,400 → $65,584
EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+47%
UNC · earnings_median_6yr rose
$38,900 → $57,057
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$562,663
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 7
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
Cost per year
$11,220
HS-only baseline · NC
$35,600
Years to complete
4
CIP family
09
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in North Carolina
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
“UNC graduates earn $X” — not “UNC makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending UNC caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.