-13pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 13 pp at Davis College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (8.3% vs 21.3%).
Ohio · Private for-profit · Predominantly associate's
Davis College
Toledo, Ohio. 95 undergraduate students. 14 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Davis College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+168%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Davis College rose 168% between 2021 and 2024 (102 → 273).
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Davis College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (6.2% → 0.0%).
+67%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Davis College rose 66% between 2006 and 2009 (19.1% → 31.7%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Ohio
Each tile compares this institution to the Ohio median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$31,588+1% · 6→10y
Ohio median $41,039$31,261
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry8.3%-31% · '97→'09
Ohio median 62.5%$11,996+467% · '97→'20
At program completion95-11% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS—-56% · '04→'22
first-time, full-time—±0% · '01→'10
latest cohort$14,130+131% · '00→'24
out-of-state $14,130SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.1%Median federal debt $11,996 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $31,588 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-31%
Davis College · completion · 150% fell
46.1% → 31.7%
-56%
Davis College · retention fell
53.0% → 23.1%
+131%
Davis College · in-state tuition rose
$6,120 → $14,130
+131%
Davis College · out-of-state tuition rose
$6,120 → $14,130
+467%
Davis College · median debt rose
$3,750 → $21,277
-100%
Davis College · cohort default rate fell
21.5% → 0.0%
-34%
Davis College · pell share fell
69.0% → 45.3%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Davis College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Business Administration, Management and Operations · Associate's Degree at Davis College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Ohio
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Davis College graduates earn $X” — not “Davis College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Davis College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.