-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.7% → 0.0%).
Oregon · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty
Grants Pass, Oregon. 43 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-38%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty fell 37% between 2014 and 2017 ($11.4k → $7.1k).
+30%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty rose 30% between 2021 and 2024 (69.2% → 89.7%).
+13%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty rose 13% between 2021 and 2024 (38 → 43).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Oregon
Each tile compares this institution to the Oregon median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$23,595+10% · 6→10y
Oregon median $40,968$21,536
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry80.0%+10% · '97→'09
Oregon median 57.5%$7,584+115% · '97→'17
At program completion43
latest IPEDS88.6%+3% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.3%Median federal debt $7,584 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $23,595 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+22%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · undergrad enrollment rose
0 → 43
+115%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · median debt rose
$3,313 → $7,107
-100%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · cohort default rate fell
12.7% → 0.0%
+63%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · earnings_median_10yr rose
$14,200 → $23,595
+53%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · earnings_median_8yr rose
$8,300 → $16,237
+62%
Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty · earnings_median_6yr rose
$12,200 → $21,536
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Oregon
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty graduates earn $X” — not “Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Phagans Grants Pass College of Beauty caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.