-41pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 41 pp at All-State Career School vs the 2003–2007 baseline (45.5% vs 86.7%).
Pennsylvania · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
All-State Career School
Essington, Pennsylvania. 831 undergraduate students. 12 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at All-State Career School
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at All-State Career School fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.6% → 0.0%).
+40%
First-year retention
First-year retention at All-State Career School rose 40% between 2021 and 2024 (44.2% → 62.0%).
+21%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at All-State Career School rose 21% between 2021 and 2024 (733 → 886).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania
Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$38,495+3% · 6→10y
Pennsylvania median $49,859$37,467
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry45.5%-23% · '97→'09
Pennsylvania median 66.1%$6,333+49% · '97→'20
At program completion831+461% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS56.0%-38% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.2%Median federal debt $6,333 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $38,495 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-23%
All-State Career School · completion · 150% fell
89.1% → 68.8%
-38%
All-State Career School · retention fell
100.0% → 62.0%
+364%
All-State Career School · undergrad enrollment rose
158 → 886
+49%
All-State Career School · median debt rose
$4,250 → $6,333
-100%
All-State Career School · cohort default rate fell
17.9% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$46,381Ground Transportation.$44,425Precision Metal Working.$40,615Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$40,563Health and Medical Administrative Services.$31,739Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$30,881Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$25,245
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
7 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
PRECISION PRODUCTION · CIP 48
TRANSPORTATION & MATERIALS MOVING · CIP 49
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at All-State Career School
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$177,981
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 10
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,876
- HS-only baseline · PA
- $38,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 49
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“All-State Career School graduates earn $X” — not “All-State Career School makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending All-State Career School caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.