ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS

What the data flags at Penn

Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+14%

Out-of-state tuition

Out-of-state tuition at University of Pennsylvania rose 14% between 2006 and 2009 ($34.2k → $39.0k).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-100%

3-year cohort default rate

3-year cohort default rate at University of Pennsylvania fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.3% → 0.0%).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+11%

In-state tuition

In-state tuition at University of Pennsylvania rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 ($61.7k → $68.7k).

PEER OUTLIER · TRENDING BETTER+89%

Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer

10-year earnings at University of Pennsylvania are 89% above the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($111.4k vs $59.0k).

SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT

The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania

Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y

$111,371+23% · 6→10y

Pennsylvania median $49,859

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y

$90,555

Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry

COMPLETION · 150%

96.8%+6% · '97→'09

Pennsylvania median 66.1%

MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT

$14,000+5% · '97→'20

At program completion

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT

10,768-6% · '96→'09

latest IPEDS

RETENTION

98.1%+1% · '04→'24

first-time, full-time

ADMISSION RATE

5.9%-75% · '01→'24

latest cohort

IN-STATE TUITION

$66,104+173% · '00→'24

out-of-state $66,104

SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS

How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry

Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).

ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05

Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →

SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS

What loans cost relative to earnings

Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.

Institution-wide

1.7%

0%8% · GE20%+

Median federal debt $14,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $111,371 (10y after entry).

SECTION 04 · LONG ARC

Ten-plus year arc

Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.

UNDERGRAD · 1996–200910,842

Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF

COMPLETION 150% · 1997–200995.0%

150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$15,715

Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD

IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+173%

Penn · in-state tuition rose

$25,170 → $68,686

OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2009+55%

Penn · out-of-state tuition rose

$25,170 → $38,970

COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-85%

Penn · cohort default rate fell

1.7% → 0.0%

PELL SHARE · 2008→2024+105%

Penn · pell share rose

8.1% → 16.5%

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+44%

Penn · earnings_median_10yr rose

$77,100 → $111,371

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+47%

Penn · earnings_median_8yr rose

$68,300 → $100,118

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+60%

Penn · earnings_median_6yr rose

$56,600 → $90,555

SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS

Ranked by 5-year earnings

Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.

Showing top 24 of 64 ranked programs.309 TOTAL PROGRAMS

SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY

64 programs with earnings, grouped

Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.

FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION

Estimate the financial outcome at Penn

Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.

Program

Family income

Discount rate · 5.0%

Horizon · 40 years

Apply Dale-Krueger selection shrinkage

Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.

NET PRESENT VALUE

$3,497,822

Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%

BREAKEVEN

Year 6

First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero

Cost per year: $17,585
HS-only baseline · PA: $38,100
Years to complete: 6
CIP family: 52

Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.

SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS

Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania

Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.

PITTSBURGH$114.9k

Penn

Out-of-state tuition

3-year cohort default rate

In-state tuition

Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer

Institution-wide

Penn · in-state tuition rose

Penn · out-of-state tuition rose

Penn · cohort default rate fell

Penn · pell share rose

Penn · earnings_median_10yr rose

Penn · earnings_median_8yr rose

Penn · earnings_median_6yr rose

COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11

EDUCATION · CIP 13

ENGINEERING · CIP 14

LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22

ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23

LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24

BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26

MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30

PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44

SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45

VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50

HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52

HISTORY · CIP 54

AGRICULTURE · CIP 01

ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04

COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09

Carnegie Mellon

Drexel

Villanova

Lehigh University

Duquesne University

“Penn graduates earn $X” — not “Penn makes you earn $X”