-22pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 22 pp at John A Gupton College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (30.8% vs 52.8%).
Tennessee · Private nonprofit · Predominantly associate's
John A Gupton College
Nashville, Tennessee. 160 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at John A Gupton College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+28%
First-year retention
First-year retention at John A Gupton College rose 28% between 2021 and 2024 (53.8% → 68.8%).
-13%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at John A Gupton College fell 13% between 2021 and 2024 (191 → 166).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Tennessee
Each tile compares this institution to the Tennessee median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$46,902+10% · 6→10y
Tennessee median $38,880$42,582
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry30.8%-50% · '97→'09
Tennessee median 57.6%$5,999+253% · '97→'20
At program completion160+113% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS35.7%+43% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time83.9%+92% · '01→'24
latest cohort$12,040+133% · '01→'24
out-of-state $12,040SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.7%Median federal debt $5,999 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $46,902 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-50%
John A Gupton College · completion · 150% fell
77.3% → 38.8%
+43%
John A Gupton College · retention rose
48.0% → 68.8%
+44%
John A Gupton College · undergrad enrollment rose
78 → 166
+133%
John A Gupton College · in-state tuition rose
$5,257 → $12,223
+133%
John A Gupton College · out-of-state tuition rose
$5,257 → $12,223
+253%
John A Gupton College · median debt rose
$3,573 → $12,610
-100%
John A Gupton College · cohort default rate fell
18.0% → 0.0%
+33%
John A Gupton College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$35,200 → $46,902
+34%
John A Gupton College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$32,800 → $44,114
+21%
John A Gupton College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$35,100 → $42,582
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at John A Gupton College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$285,067
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 9
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $22,966
- HS-only baseline · TN
- $34,600
- Years to complete
- 2
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Tennessee
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“John A Gupton College graduates earn $X” — not “John A Gupton College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending John A Gupton College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.