-45%
Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Messenger College are 45% below the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($29.5k vs $53.8k).
Texas · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Messenger College
Bedford, Texas. 26 undergraduate students. 7 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Messenger College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
12.2%
Debt-to-earnings
Debt-to-earnings ratio of 12.2% at Messenger College exceeds the 8% gainful-employment threshold ($27.0k debt amortized over 10 years vs $29.5k earnings).
+128%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Messenger College rose 128% between 2006 and 2009 ($6.6k → $15.1k).
-23%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Messenger College fell 23% between 2021 and 2024 (31 → 24).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$29,463+1% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$29,135
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry55.6%+475% · '97→'24
Texas median 51.8%$27,000+278% · '97→'09
At program completion26-73% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS66.7%-12% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time50.0%-63% · '02→'24
latest cohort$11,200+195% · '00→'24
out-of-state $11,200SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
12.2%Median federal debt $27,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $29,463 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+475%
Messenger College · completion · 150% rose
17.4% → 100.0%
+1870%
Messenger College · completion · 100% rose
4.3% → 85.7%
-12%
Messenger College · retention fell
65.0% → 57.1%
-32%
Messenger College · undergrad enrollment fell
88 → 24
+195%
Messenger College · in-state tuition rose
$3,945 → $11,620
+195%
Messenger College · out-of-state tuition rose
$3,945 → $11,620
+278%
Messenger College · median debt rose
$4,000 → $15,125
+24%
Messenger College · pell share rose
65.8% → 81.5%
+61%
Messenger College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$24,800 → $39,944
+34%
Messenger College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$21,700 → $29,135
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Messenger College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Religion/Religious Studies · Bachelor's Degree at Messenger College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Messenger College graduates earn $X” — not “Messenger College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Messenger College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.