-43%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 43% at Navarro College vs the 2018–2022 baseline (4.0k vs 6.9k).
Texas · Public · Predominantly associate's
Navarro College
Corsicana, Texas. 3,959 undergraduate students. 60 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Navarro College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+17%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Navarro College rose 17% between 2019 and 2022 (50.7% → 59.1%).
-42%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Navarro College fell 42% between 2021 and 2024 (6.6k → 3.8k).
-15%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Navarro College fell 15% between 2017 and 2020 ($13.0k → $11.0k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$38,716+22% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$31,865
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry23.9%+49% · '97→'24
Texas median 51.8%$7,926+319% · '97→'20
At program completion3,959+11% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS—+11% · '04→'22
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$3,008+205% · '00→'24
out-of-state $6,578SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.7%Median federal debt $7,926 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $38,716 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+49%
Navarro College · completion · 150% rose
15.1% → 22.6%
+11%
Navarro College · retention rose
53.0% → 59.1%
+202%
Navarro College · in-state tuition rose
$986 → $3,008
+297%
Navarro College · out-of-state tuition rose
$1,656 → $6,578
+319%
Navarro College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $11,000
-27%
Navarro College · pell share fell
42.0% → 30.5%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$76,098Fire Protection.$61,379Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians.$59,525Agricultural Mechanization.$59,184Agricultural Mechanization.$58,806Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians.$54,529Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$54,513Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$53,393Business Administration, Management and Operations.$48,001Criminal Justice and Corrections.$41,125Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$40,634Psychology, General.$39,108Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$38,616Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services.$26,977Somatic Bodywork and Related Therapeutic Services.$24,225
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
15 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 15
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Navarro College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$80,910
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 21
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $15,368
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 2
- CIP family
- 24
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Navarro College graduates earn $X” — not “Navarro College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Navarro College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.