+40%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Tarleton State University rose 40% between 2006 and 2009 ($6.8k → $9.5k).
Texas · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
Tarleton State University
Stephenville, Texas. 12,263 undergraduate students. 106 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Tarleton State University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+11%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Tarleton State University rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 (29.7% → 33.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$53,040+14% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$46,729
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry51.2%+78% · '97→'24
Texas median 51.8%$13,989+61% · '97→'09
At program completion12,263+128% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS73.8%+13% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time94.2%+31% · '01→'24
latest cohort$7,878+192% · '00→'24
out-of-state $17,958SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $13,989 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $53,040 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+78%
Tarleton State University · completion · 150% rose
27.2% → 48.2%
+236%
Tarleton State University · completion · 100% rose
9.8% → 33.0%
+13%
Tarleton State University · retention rose
62.0% → 69.8%
+128%
Tarleton State University · undergrad enrollment rose
5,551 → 12,673
+192%
Tarleton State University · in-state tuition rose
$2,846 → $8,302
+102%
Tarleton State University · out-of-state tuition rose
$8,966 → $18,142
+61%
Tarleton State University · median debt rose
$5,910 → $9,500
+27%
Tarleton State University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$41,900 → $53,040
+29%
Tarleton State University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$38,900 → $50,130
+35%
Tarleton State University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$34,600 → $46,729
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Business Administration, Management and Operations.$86,802Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$86,067Human Resources Management and Services.$81,614Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians.$74,385Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$72,621Educational Administration and Supervision.$72,374Engineering Technology, General.$68,766Criminal Justice and Corrections.$67,205Business/Commerce, General.$66,751Accounting and Related Services.$62,303Student Counseling and Personnel Services.$60,816Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$59,315Business Administration, Management and Operations.$59,229Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$58,808Human Resources Management and Services.$56,986Marketing.$55,885Agricultural Business and Management.$55,624Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$54,677Zoology/Animal Biology.$54,638Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology.$53,286Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$53,139Computer and Information Sciences, General.$52,978Agricultural Public Services.$52,880Biology, General.$52,338
Showing top 24 of 36 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
36 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 15
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
Business/Commerce, General.$66,751Business Administration, Management and Operations.$86,802Accounting and Related Services.$62,303Business Administration, Management and Operations.$59,229Human Resources Management and Services.$81,614Marketing.$55,885Human Resources Management and Services.$56,986
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Tarleton State University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$182,723
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 18
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,599
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 30
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Tarleton State University graduates earn $X” — not “Tarleton State University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Tarleton State University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.