-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Ascent College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (16.2% → 0.0%).
Virginia · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Ascent College
Gainesville, Virginia. 85 undergraduate students. 7 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Ascent College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+34%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Ascent College rose 34% between 2021 and 2024 (61 → 82).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Virginia
Each tile compares this institution to the Virginia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
—
Virginia median $44,813$31,455
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry50.0%+140% · '10→'24
Virginia median 50.7%—
At program completion85+8% · '10→'24
latest IPEDS—+40% · '10→'21
first-time, full-time—-43% · '13→'14
latest cohort$7,680+89% · '10→'24
out-of-state $7,680SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
+140%
Ascent College · completion · 150% rose
41.7% → 100.0%
+40%
Ascent College · retention rose
71.4% → 100.0%
+89%
Ascent College · in-state tuition rose
$4,525 → $8,550
+89%
Ascent College · out-of-state tuition rose
$4,525 → $8,550
+549%
Ascent College · pell share rose
0.0% → 27.5%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Ascent College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Theological and Ministerial Studies · Associate's Degree at Ascent College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Virginia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Ascent College graduates earn $X” — not “Ascent College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Ascent College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.