-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Northern Virginia Community College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.4% → 0.0%).
Virginia · Public · Predominantly associate's
Northern Virginia Community College
Annandale, Virginia. 31,737 undergraduate students. 92 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Northern Virginia Community College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+35%
Public associate's-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Northern Virginia Community College are 35% above the public associate's-predominant peer median ($53.6k vs $39.6k).
+24%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Northern Virginia Community College rose 24% between 2006 and 2009 (12.5% → 15.5%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Virginia
Each tile compares this institution to the Virginia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$53,557+32% · 6→10y
Virginia median $44,813$40,698
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry37.3%+115% · '97→'09
Virginia median 50.7%$7,000+319% · '97→'20
At program completion31,737+41% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS72.1%+4% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$5,703+523% · '01→'24
out-of-state $11,786SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.7%Median federal debt $7,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $53,557 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+115%
Northern Virginia Community College · completion · 150% rose
7.2% → 15.5%
+41%
Northern Virginia Community College · undergrad enrollment rose
23,486 → 33,048
+495%
Northern Virginia Community College · in-state tuition rose
$945 → $5,891
+198%
Northern Virginia Community College · out-of-state tuition rose
$4,159 → $12,409
+319%
Northern Virginia Community College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $11,000
-100%
Northern Virginia Community College · cohort default rate fell
12.3% → 0.0%
+91%
Northern Virginia Community College · pell share rose
10.6% → 20.2%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Computer Science.$85,960Engineering, General.$83,194Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$81,383Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$81,348Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$76,559Computer and Information Sciences, General.$73,013Accounting and Related Services.$67,613Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$62,101Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Technologies.$61,320Business Administration, Management and Operations.$59,601Accounting and Related Services.$57,961Criminal Justice and Corrections.$55,496Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$55,362Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$53,659Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$52,654Veterinary/Animal Health Technologies/Technicians.$49,695Business Administration, Management and Operations.$48,443Social Sciences, General.$48,149Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$47,384Biological and Physical Sciences.$46,948Legal Support Services.$46,360Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$46,146Visual and Performing Arts, General.$37,970Human Development, Family Studies, and Related Services.$31,603
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
24 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$76,559Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$81,383Allied Health and Medical Assisting Services.$53,659Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$81,348Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$62,101Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$55,362
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Northern Virginia Community College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$191,897
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 8
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $10,033
- HS-only baseline · VA
- $39,800
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 24
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Virginia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Northern Virginia Community College graduates earn $X” — not “Northern Virginia Community College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Northern Virginia Community College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.