-16pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 16 pp at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke vs the 2003–2007 baseline (39.1% vs 54.7%).
Virginia · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke
Roanoke, Virginia. 73 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+58%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke rose 58% between 2021 and 2024 (107 → 169).
+44%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke rose 44% between 2021 and 2024 (50.0% → 71.9%).
+42%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke are 42% above 6-year earnings ($13.5k → $19.2k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Virginia
Each tile compares this institution to the Virginia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$19,217+42% · 6→10y
Virginia median $44,813$13,518
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry39.1%+32% · '98→'09
Virginia median 50.7%$9,500+275% · '97→'20
At program completion73+705% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS78.3%+22% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
6.6%Median federal debt $9,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $19,217 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+32%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · completion · 150% rose
61.4% → 81.0%
+22%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · retention rose
59.0% → 71.9%
+74%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · undergrad enrollment rose
21 → 169
+275%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · median debt rose
$2,625 → $9,833
-100%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · cohort default rate fell
26.8% → 0.0%
-22%
Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke · pell share fell
87.9% → 68.3%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$382,481
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $19,101
- HS-only baseline · VA
- $39,800
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Virginia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-Roanoke caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.