-62%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Paul Mitchell the School-Madison fell 62% between 2020 and 2023 (12.5% → 4.7%).
Wisconsin · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-Madison
Madison, Wisconsin. 52 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-Madison
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+36%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-Madison rose 36% between 2021 and 2024 (68.8% → 93.8%).
+15%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Paul Mitchell the School-Madison rose 15% between 2021 and 2024 (61 → 70).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Wisconsin
Each tile compares this institution to the Wisconsin median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$29,138+0% · 6→10y
Wisconsin median $46,297$29,073
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry40.0%
Wisconsin median 58.4%$9,500-36% · '15→'20
At program completion52+338% · '15→'24
latest IPEDS66.7%-6% · '16→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.3%Median federal debt $9,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $29,138 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+27%
Paul Mitchell the School-Madison · undergrad enrollment rose
16 → 70
-36%
Paul Mitchell the School-Madison · median debt fell
$16,000 → $10,194
-73%
Paul Mitchell the School-Madison · cohort default rate fell
17.5% → 4.7%
-39%
Paul Mitchell the School-Madison · pell share fell
55.6% → 34.1%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paul Mitchell the School-Madison
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$143,790
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $23,365
- HS-only baseline · WI
- $37,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Wisconsin
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-Madison graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-Madison makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-Madison caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.