-18%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Avalon Institute-Aurora are 18% below 6-year earnings ($29.8k → $24.4k).
Colorado · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Avalon Institute-Aurora
Aurora, Colorado. 217 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Avalon Institute-Aurora
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Avalon Institute-Aurora fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (5.0% → 0.0%).
-20%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Avalon Institute-Aurora fell 20% between 2017 and 2020 ($7.9k → $6.3k).
+11%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Avalon Institute-Aurora rose 11% between 2006 and 2009 (80.0% → 88.5%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Colorado
Each tile compares this institution to the Colorado median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$24,367-18% · 6→10y
Colorado median $43,242$29,752
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry81.5%-1% · '97→'09
Colorado median 55.5%$6,325+91% · '97→'20
At program completion217+170% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS83.5%+15% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—±0% · '05→'07
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $6,325 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $24,367 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+15%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · retention rose
79.0% → 90.6%
+51%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · undergrad enrollment rose
60 → 162
+91%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · median debt rose
$3,313 → $6,332
-100%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · cohort default rate fell
15.0% → 0.0%
+397%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · pell share rose
13.3% → 66.0%
+34%
Avalon Institute-Aurora · earnings_median_8yr rose
$24,100 → $32,234
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Avalon Institute-Aurora
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$150,193
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $19,004
- HS-only baseline · CO
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Colorado
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Avalon Institute-Aurora graduates earn $X” — not “Avalon Institute-Aurora makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Avalon Institute-Aurora caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.