-24%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 24% at Blackburn College vs the 2018–2022 baseline (341 vs 450).
Illinois · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Blackburn College
Carlinville, Illinois. 341 undergraduate students. 41 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Blackburn College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Blackburn College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.9% → 0.0%).
+10%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Blackburn College rose 10% between 2021 and 2024 ($25.6k → $28.1k).
+10%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Blackburn College rose 10% between 2021 and 2024 ($25.6k → $28.1k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Illinois
Each tile compares this institution to the Illinois median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$46,802+28% · 6→10y
Illinois median $40,810$36,665
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry52.4%+75% · '97→'24
Illinois median 53.3%$14,770+340% · '97→'20
At program completion341-6% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS57.7%+20% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time80.1%-2% · '01→'24
latest cohort$26,758+223% · '01→'24
out-of-state $26,758SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.2%Median federal debt $14,770 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $46,802 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+75%
Blackburn College · completion · 150% rose
32.8% → 57.5%
+154%
Blackburn College · completion · 100% rose
19.8% → 50.3%
+20%
Blackburn College · retention rose
56.0% → 67.2%
+223%
Blackburn College · in-state tuition rose
$8,720 → $28,149
+223%
Blackburn College · out-of-state tuition rose
$8,720 → $28,149
+340%
Blackburn College · median debt rose
$5,505 → $24,242
-100%
Blackburn College · cohort default rate fell
11.3% → 0.0%
+26%
Blackburn College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$37,100 → $46,802
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
3 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Blackburn College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$381,890
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 11
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,872
- HS-only baseline · IL
- $38,300
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 26
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Illinois
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Blackburn College graduates earn $X” — not “Blackburn College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Blackburn College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.