-22%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 22% at Earlham College vs the 2018–2022 baseline (612 vs 786).
Indiana · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Earlham College
Richmond, Indiana. 612 undergraduate students. 44 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Earlham College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Earlham College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.5% → 0.0%).
+43%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Earlham College are 43% above 6-year earnings ($35.4k → $50.8k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Indiana
Each tile compares this institution to the Indiana median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$50,797+43% · 6→10y
Indiana median $46,945$35,430
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry67.9%+14% · '97→'24
Indiana median 60.7%$19,500+126% · '97→'20
At program completion612-33% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS79.8%-10% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time74.2%-9% · '01→'24
latest cohort$51,840+156% · '00→'24
out-of-state $51,840SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.1%Median federal debt $19,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $50,797 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+24%
Earlham College · completion · 100% rose
51.9% → 64.6%
-10%
Earlham College · retention fell
86.0% → 77.2%
-33%
Earlham College · undergrad enrollment fell
1,005 → 670
+156%
Earlham College · in-state tuition rose
$21,070 → $53,930
+156%
Earlham College · out-of-state tuition rose
$21,070 → $53,930
+126%
Earlham College · median debt rose
$10,400 → $23,488
-100%
Earlham College · cohort default rate fell
2.8% → 0.0%
+81%
Earlham College · pell share rose
13.5% → 24.4%
+21%
Earlham College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$42,100 → $50,797
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Earlham College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$40,980
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 30
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $22,527
- HS-only baseline · IN
- $36,400
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 26
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Indiana
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Earlham College graduates earn $X” — not “Earlham College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Earlham College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.