ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS

What the data flags at Columbia

Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+13%

In-state tuition

In-state tuition at Columbia University in the City of New York rose 13% between 2021 and 2024 ($63.5k → $71.8k).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-100%

3-year cohort default rate

3-year cohort default rate at Columbia University in the City of New York fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.9% → 0.0%).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+13%

Out-of-state tuition

Out-of-state tuition at Columbia University in the City of New York rose 13% between 2021 and 2024 ($63.5k → $71.8k).

PEER OUTLIER · TRENDING BETTER+67%

Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer

10-year earnings at Columbia University in the City of New York are 67% above the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($102.5k vs $61.5k).

SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT

The numbers, vs. New York

Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y

$102,491+16% · 6→10y

New York median $48,917

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y

$88,535

Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry

COMPLETION · 150%

95.0%+10% · '97→'24

New York median 64.2%

MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT

$18,750+53% · '97→'20

At program completion

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT

8,899+54% · '96→'24

latest IPEDS

RETENTION

97.2%+1% · '04→'24

first-time, full-time

ADMISSION RATE

4.2%-72% · '02→'24

latest cohort

IN-STATE TUITION

$69,045+177% · '00→'24

out-of-state $69,045

SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS

How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry

Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).

ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05

Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →

SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS

What loans cost relative to earnings

Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.

Institution-wide

2.4%

0%8% · GE20%+

Median federal debt $18,750 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $102,491 (10y after entry).

SECTION 04 · LONG ARC

Ten-plus year arc

Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.

UNDERGRAD · 1996–20248,973

Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF

COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202496.1%

150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$21,500

Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT · 1996→2024+54%

Columbia · undergrad enrollment rose

5,845 → 8,973

IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+177%

Columbia · in-state tuition rose

$25,922 → $71,845

OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+177%

Columbia · out-of-state tuition rose

$25,922 → $71,845

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997→2020+53%

Columbia · median debt rose

$14,024 → $21,500

COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-100%

Columbia · cohort default rate fell

2.7% → 0.0%

PELL SHARE · 2008→2024+46%

Columbia · pell share rose

15.5% → 22.7%

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+38%

Columbia · earnings_median_10yr rose

$74,300 → $102,491

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+49%

Columbia · earnings_median_8yr rose

$65,900 → $98,435

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+59%

Columbia · earnings_median_6yr rose

$55,700 → $88,535

SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS

Ranked by 5-year earnings

Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.

Showing top 24 of 73 ranked programs.366 TOTAL PROGRAMS

SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY

73 programs with earnings, grouped

Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.

FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION

Estimate the financial outcome at Columbia

Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.

Program

Family income

Discount rate · 5.0%

Horizon · 40 years

Apply Dale-Krueger selection shrinkage

Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.

NET PRESENT VALUE

$1,340,469

Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%

BREAKEVEN

Year 6

First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero

Cost per year: $5,195
HS-only baseline · NY: $40,100
Years to complete: 6
CIP family: 52

Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.

SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS

Same sector and degree mix in New York

Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.

ROCHESTER$79.0k

Columbia

In-state tuition

3-year cohort default rate

Out-of-state tuition

Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer

Institution-wide

Columbia · undergrad enrollment rose

Columbia · in-state tuition rose

Columbia · out-of-state tuition rose

Columbia · median debt rose

Columbia · cohort default rate fell

Columbia · pell share rose

Columbia · earnings_median_10yr rose

Columbia · earnings_median_8yr rose

Columbia · earnings_median_6yr rose

COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11

ENGINEERING · CIP 14

FOREIGN LANGUAGES · CIP 16

LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22

ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23

LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24

BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26

MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27

MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30

PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31

PHILOSOPHY & RELIGIOUS STUDIES · CIP 38

PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44

SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45

VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50

HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52

HISTORY · CIP 54

NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03

ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04

AREA, ETHNIC & CULTURAL STUDIES · CIP 05

COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09

Rochester

RPI

Yeshiva University

Cornell

NYU

“Columbia graduates earn $X” — not “Columbia makes you earn $X”