+83%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Arnolds Beauty School rose 83% between 2007 and 2010 ($4.4k → $8.0k).
Tennessee · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Arnolds Beauty School
Milan, Tennessee. 63 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Arnolds Beauty School
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Arnolds Beauty School fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.4% → 0.0%).
-20%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Arnolds Beauty School fell 20% between 2021 and 2024 (79 → 63).
-16pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 16 pp at Arnolds Beauty School vs the 2003–2007 baseline (59.5% vs 75.5%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Tennessee
Each tile compares this institution to the Tennessee median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$27,828+43% · 6→10y
Tennessee median $38,880$19,426
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry59.5%+36% · '97→'09
Tennessee median 57.6%$7,667+205% · '97→'10
At program completion63-38% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS94.1%+25% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.7%Median federal debt $7,667 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $27,828 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+36%
Arnolds Beauty School · completion · 150% rose
53.2% → 72.3%
+25%
Arnolds Beauty School · retention rose
69.0% → 86.4%
+205%
Arnolds Beauty School · median debt rose
$2,625 → $8,000
-100%
Arnolds Beauty School · cohort default rate fell
39.2% → 0.0%
-36%
Arnolds Beauty School · pell share fell
74.5% → 47.4%
+64%
Arnolds Beauty School · earnings_median_10yr rose
$17,000 → $27,828
+47%
Arnolds Beauty School · earnings_median_8yr rose
$15,100 → $22,201
+31%
Arnolds Beauty School · earnings_median_6yr rose
$14,800 → $19,426
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Arnolds Beauty School
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at Arnolds Beauty School(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Tennessee
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Arnolds Beauty School graduates earn $X” — not “Arnolds Beauty School makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Arnolds Beauty School caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.