-13%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Carson-Newman University fell 13% between 2021 and 2024 (1.6k → 1.4k).
Tennessee · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Carson-Newman University
Jefferson City, Tennessee. 1,374 undergraduate students. 95 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Carson-Newman University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+11%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Carson-Newman University rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 ($31.3k → $34.7k).
+11%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Carson-Newman University rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 ($31.3k → $34.7k).
-8pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 8 pp at Carson-Newman University vs the 2018–2022 baseline (46.5% vs 54.4%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Tennessee
Each tile compares this institution to the Tennessee median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$48,382+23% · 6→10y
Tennessee median $38,880$39,324
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry46.5%-1% · '97→'24
Tennessee median 57.6%$14,519+161% · '97→'20
At program completion1,374-31% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS73.6%+3% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time68.3%+2% · '01→'24
latest cohort$34,700+191% · '00→'24
out-of-state $34,700SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.0%Median federal debt $14,519 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $48,382 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-31%
Carson-Newman University · undergrad enrollment fell
2,013 → 1,387
+191%
Carson-Newman University · in-state tuition rose
$11,920 → $34,700
+191%
Carson-Newman University · out-of-state tuition rose
$11,920 → $34,700
+161%
Carson-Newman University · median debt rose
$8,250 → $21,500
-100%
Carson-Newman University · cohort default rate fell
10.7% → 0.0%
+35%
Carson-Newman University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$35,900 → $48,382
+34%
Carson-Newman University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$33,100 → $44,452
+37%
Carson-Newman University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$28,700 → $39,324
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$110,714Educational Administration and Supervision.$68,050Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$67,483Business Administration, Management and Operations.$66,174Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$62,476Accounting and Related Services.$60,058Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$54,353Business Administration, Management and Operations.$52,782Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$48,549Psychology, Other.$45,487Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$43,731Human Services, General.$42,420
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
12 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Carson-Newman University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$436,808
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 13
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $17,326
- HS-only baseline · TN
- $34,600
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Tennessee
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Carson-Newman University graduates earn $X” — not “Carson-Newman University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Carson-Newman University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.