-37%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Tennessee State University fell 37% between 2021 and 2024 (52.9% → 33.5%).
Tennessee · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
Tennessee State
Nashville, Tennessee. 6,498 undergraduate students. 79 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Tennessee State
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Tennessee State University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.4% → 0.0%).
-17%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Tennessee State University fell 17% between 2021 and 2024 (5.9k → 4.8k).
+17%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Tennessee State University rose 17% between 2021 and 2024 (18.6% → 21.8%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Tennessee
Each tile compares this institution to the Tennessee median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$42,730+25% · 6→10y
Tennessee median $38,880$34,160
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry33.0%-7% · '97→'24
Tennessee median 57.6%$17,500+414% · '97→'20
At program completion6,498-30% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS60.2%-58% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time92.6%+14% · '01→'24
latest cohort$8,568+225% · '00→'24
out-of-state $22,284SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.5%Median federal debt $17,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $42,730 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+84%
Tennessee State · completion · 100% rose
11.8% → 21.8%
-58%
Tennessee State · retention fell
79.0% → 33.5%
-30%
Tennessee State · undergrad enrollment fell
6,962 → 4,848
+225%
Tennessee State · in-state tuition rose
$2,651 → $8,616
+171%
Tennessee State · out-of-state tuition rose
$8,279 → $22,416
+414%
Tennessee State · median debt rose
$5,250 → $27,000
-100%
Tennessee State · cohort default rate fell
13.7% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$106,173Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$88,762Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$80,187Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$78,099Business Administration, Management and Operations.$77,474Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$68,740Accounting and Related Services.$68,010Public Administration.$67,505Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$63,262Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$63,165Computer Science.$61,218Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$60,054Psychology, General.$58,546Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$56,020Business Administration, Management and Operations.$55,205Health and Medical Administrative Services.$54,837Social Work.$54,458Criminal Justice and Corrections.$48,027Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$45,926Agriculture, General.$43,651Political Science and Government.$42,765Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences, Other.$41,776Biology, General.$40,944Communication and Media Studies.$40,921
Showing top 24 of 28 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
28 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences, Other.$41,776Dental Support Services and Allied Professions.$63,165Health and Medical Administrative Services.$54,837Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$106,173Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$63,262Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$68,740Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$56,020Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$78,099Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$80,187Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$88,762
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Tennessee State
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$374,124
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 9
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $11,079
- HS-only baseline · TN
- $34,600
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Tennessee
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Tennessee State graduates earn $X” — not “Tennessee State makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Tennessee State caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.