-46pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 46 pp at Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin vs the 2003–2007 baseline (31.8% vs 77.8%).
Texas · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin
Austin, Texas. 46 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+14%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin rose 14% between 2021 and 2024 (74.1% → 84.6%).
-24%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin fell 24% between 2021 and 2024 (41 → 31).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$24,801+0% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$24,736
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry31.8%+24% · '99→'09
Texas median 51.8%$5,500+24% · '15→'20
At program completion46-57% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS72.7%+11% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.0%Median federal debt $5,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $24,801 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+24%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · completion · 150% rose
58.3% → 72.1%
+11%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · retention rose
76.0% → 84.6%
-21%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · undergrad enrollment fell
72 → 31
+24%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · median debt rose
$5,625 → $6,980
+33%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · pell share rose
37.6% → 50.0%
+23%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · earnings_median_10yr rose
$20,100 → $24,801
+57%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · earnings_median_8yr rose
$16,600 → $26,026
+52%
Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin · earnings_median_6yr rose
$16,300 → $24,736
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$256,039
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $16,335
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin graduates earn $X” — not “Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Baldwin Beauty School-South Austin caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.