8.2%
Debt-to-earnings
Debt-to-earnings ratio of 8.2% at Jay's Technical Institute exceeds the 8% gainful-employment threshold ($9.5k debt amortized over 10 years vs $15.5k earnings).
Texas · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Jay's Technical Institute
Houston, Texas. 26 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Jay's Technical Institute
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+70%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Jay's Technical Institute rose 70% between 2006 and 2009 ($4.4k → $7.5k).
-61%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Jay's Technical Institute fell 61% between 2006 and 2009 (80.0% → 31.2%).
-24pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 24 pp at Jay's Technical Institute vs the 2003–2007 baseline (54.5% vs 78.8%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$15,511+22% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$12,713
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry54.5%-62% · '03→'09
Texas median 51.8%$9,500+126% · '05→'09
At program completion26-41% · '03→'24
latest IPEDS21.4%+163% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
8.2%Median federal debt $9,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $15,511 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-62%
Jay's Technical Institute · completion · 150% fell
83.2% → 31.2%
+163%
Jay's Technical Institute · retention rose
38.0% → 100.0%
-27%
Jay's Technical Institute · undergrad enrollment fell
133 → 79
+126%
Jay's Technical Institute · median debt rose
$3,313 → $7,500
-26%
Jay's Technical Institute · pell share fell
83.6% → 61.5%
+22%
Jay's Technical Institute · earnings_median_10yr rose
$12,200 → $15,511
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Jay's Technical Institute
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$290,728
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $16,306
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Jay's Technical Institute graduates earn $X” — not “Jay's Technical Institute makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Jay's Technical Institute caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.