+33%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Texas State University rose 33% between 2006 and 2009 ($8.2k → $11.0k).
Texas · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
Texas State University
San Marcos, Texas. 34,547 undergraduate students. 182 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Texas State University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$56,906+22% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$46,716
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry56.2%+75% · '97→'24
Texas median 51.8%$14,993+100% · '97→'09
At program completion34,547+105% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS77.5%+5% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time89.5%+55% · '01→'24
latest cohort$11,450+245% · '00→'24
out-of-state $23,210SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $14,993 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $56,906 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+75%
Texas State University · completion · 150% rose
31.6% → 55.3%
+387%
Texas State University · completion · 100% rose
6.9% → 33.6%
+105%
Texas State University · undergrad enrollment rose
17,677 → 36,177
+245%
Texas State University · in-state tuition rose
$3,316 → $11,450
+135%
Texas State University · out-of-state tuition rose
$9,766 → $22,930
+100%
Texas State University · median debt rose
$5,500 → $11,000
+38%
Texas State University · pell share rose
27.1% → 37.2%
+28%
Texas State University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$44,600 → $56,906
+27%
Texas State University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$41,300 → $52,554
+24%
Texas State University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$37,700 → $46,716
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$118,911Computer Science.$113,108Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering.$104,885Business Administration, Management and Operations.$102,310Physics.$101,450Construction Engineering Technologies.$96,457Educational Administration and Supervision.$92,541Industrial Engineering.$88,735Accounting and Related Services.$88,423Computer and Information Sciences, General.$88,254Manufacturing Engineering.$86,375Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$85,352Public Administration.$81,234Finance and Financial Management Services.$80,518Health and Medical Administrative Services.$78,605Applied Mathematics.$73,629Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$73,210Marketing.$72,788Accounting and Related Services.$72,251Business/Managerial Economics.$71,595Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$71,081Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$70,792Business Administration, Management and Operations.$68,669Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$66,776
Showing top 24 of 85 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
85 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 15
FOREIGN LANGUAGES · CIP 16
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Health and Medical Administrative Services.$61,400Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$73,210Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$71,081Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$66,703Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$85,352Health and Medical Administrative Services.$78,605Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$118,911Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$70,792Public Health.$54,371Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$60,668Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$56,811
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
Business Administration, Management and Operations.$68,669Marketing.$72,788Finance and Financial Management Services.$80,518Accounting and Related Services.$72,251Specialized Sales, Merchandising and Marketing Operations.$58,224Business Administration, Management and Operations.$102,310Accounting and Related Services.$88,423Business/Managerial Economics.$71,595
HISTORY · CIP 54
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03
ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Texas State University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$135,210
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 17
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $16,117
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 42
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Texas State University graduates earn $X” — not “Texas State University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Texas State University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.