-23pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 23 pp at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George vs the 2003–2007 baseline (61.5% vs 84.5%).
Utah · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-St. George
Saint George, Utah. 103 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+51%
For-profit certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George are 51% above the for-profit certificate-predominant peer median ($38.0k vs $25.3k).
-13%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George fell 12% between 2021 and 2024 (72.7% → 63.6%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Utah
Each tile compares this institution to the Utah median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$38,043+33% · 8→10y
Utah median $35,805—
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry61.5%+14% · '97→'09
Utah median 69.4%$7,070
At program completion103+118% · '97→'24
latest IPEDS72.0%-27% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.5%Median federal debt $7,070 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $38,043 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
-27%
Paul Mitchell the School-St. George · retention fell
87.0% → 63.6%
+30%
Paul Mitchell the School-St. George · undergrad enrollment rose
50 → 109
+261%
Paul Mitchell the School-St. George · pell share rose
10.4% → 37.7%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at Paul Mitchell the School-St. George(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Utah
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-St. George graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-St. George makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-St. George caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.